3/12/2004

Value Plus for Florida Derby

The 53rd. running of the Grade 1 Florida Derby promises to be a competitive contest, with a field of ten 3-y-olds trying to break through and establish themselves as bone fide Kentucky Derby contenders.

Likely to be favored by bettors, the New York-bred Read the Footnotes seeks to follow in Funny Cide's footsteps on May 1st. but his only blemish on a so far 5 for 6 career came when matched up against the very best, and this test promises to be a lot tougher than the Fountain of Youth Stakes, which he won on his '04 debut/

On that occasion Read the Footnotes had a very hard race, off a lay-off, and it's debatable just how good that form is. So we'll take a chance with the handsome grey, Value Plus, who was most impressive when winning here on Feb. 14th. when he scampered a very fast 7 furlongs in 1:21/2.

That was around one turn, and his only 2-turn effort, last fall in the Lanes End Futurity at Keeneland was a bit disappointing, when he was a troubled 4th. by 5 to Eurosilver. However, with this race apparently lacking any real speed, we expect him to take advantage of this situation and wire the field.

As for dangers: the favorite, being by Smoke Glacken may just find this trip to be at his limit. So we'll suggest The Cliffs Edge (who may not have liked the deep Tampa track last time out) and Tapit, from the ever-dangerous barn of Michael Dickinson, as the dangers to be included in Exactas and Trifectas.

Selection: VALUE PLUS to beat Read the Footnotes, with The Cliffs Edge and Tapit the dangers.