3/16/2004

Value Plus for the Derby at 27/1

In the wake of this past weekend's major trials for the Kentucky Derby, the horse that appeals most to us is Todd Pletcher's handsome grey colt, Value Plus, who ran a good 2nd. in the Florida Derby.

This was by far the big grey's best 2-turn effort, after his trainer had apparently tried to slow him down, with cautious works, after his blazing '04 debut over 7 furlongs in a rapid 1:21.

Breaking flat-footed, Value Plus rated kindly off a modest pace, and cruised up on the shoulders of the Even-money favorite, Read the Footnotes, turning for home. At that stage it looked like he would gallop....but a combination of greenness and perhaps getting a little tired the first time that he'd tried this distance, off a slow work program, resulted in him flatening out, to be eventually caught and beaten 3/4 of a length.

Take nothing away from the winner, Friends Lake (who ironically gave Richard Migliore, who usually rides for Read the Footnotes' trainer Rick Violette, his biggest win at the expense of one of his most enthusiastic boosters) but Value Plus, a $1.1 million yearling, seems to be the horse likely to improve the most. And, if equiped with blinkers, bolstered by another good interim 2-turn effort and afforded a good stalking trip off a fast pace at Churchill Downs, he's the one we believe will get the roses on May 1st.

So get on!....at 27.50-1. And watch out for Tapit (18.80-1), next time out!