3/22/2004

All to play for

A great deal can happen to a horse in five weeks. So between now and May 1st. there are bound to be developments, both positive and negative, on the Derby front. And one should not forget that at this stage, a few years ago, Charismatic was not even on the radar screen for most serious pundits.

Nevertheless 2004 looks particularly perplexing. And, as this is bound to lead to a full field, we could be in for an upset.

At the moment the Florida Derby is being panned, as having been slow. And in California none of the big-guns have fired so far, with BC Juvenile winner, Action this Day, a big disappointment, so far. But never rule out his canny trainer, Dick Mandella.

With either the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct or Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland likely to confirm an individual as favorite over the 'field', ante-post speculation is most intriguing.....as for most owners and trainers the race is still wide open.....with all to play for.

In the meantime the focus will be upon Dubai this week, where Pleasantly Perfect looks to add the richest race in the world to his BC Classic victory, last fall at Santa Anita.

As a lightly-raced 6-y-old, in the hands of master horseman, Richard Mandella, he is still sound and in good shape, and is furthermore bound to stay the trip. So his chances must be respected. And, in a year when there would appear to be no European stand-out, Pleasantly Perfect should become the third US-based winner of this $5 million contest.....after Cigar and Silver Charm.

Somehow, though, this fabulous night under the desert stars seems to have lost some of it's lustre since the heady days of Cigar and Dubai Millennium. And unfortunately, as America's most famous race looms on the horizon, the 2004 Kentucky Derby (without a super-star-in-the-making this year) is shaping up to be rather so, so as well.

But hope springs eternal......so let's hope that a late-bloomer steps forward to brighten the day. Perhaps even our choice....VALUE PLUS?