4/13/2004

Derby Developments

The last Kentucky Derby 'Future Pool' went 7/1 the Field, with Smarty Jones a tepid 11/1 shot and everyone else out in left field. Now, in the wake of this past weekend's major trials, a handfull of serious candidates have finally emerged.

In New York our choice Value Plus provided none at all, and looks like an immature miler at this stage. And it was the other grey, Tapit, a strikingly handsome and splendidly actioned son of Pulpit who circled the field in impressive style to run down Master David and Eddington.

Michael Dickinson would appear to have a serious tool in his hands, here. And young Ramon Dominguez seems to have bought into the 'mad scientist's' program (Battaglia/Hammond-speak, not RR). For, steadying his charge back to last on the run to the club-house turn, the big grey looked like he was being righted for the first fence of a 3-mile chase. And it was splendid to see him then cruise past the field down the back-stretch, while still on the bridle. That he only prevailed by a narrow margin was more due to his greenness than lack of superiority. For he was tons the best.

The only caveat, as far as the Derby is concerned, is that a) he could encounter traffic problems in a big field, with this style of running, and b) his sometimes over-fastidious handler would not be averse to pulling a Drysdale-shot on the day, and scratching his charge if everything is not quite right.

Additionally....should Tapit win the Kentucky Derby, there is no guarantee that his trainer will allow himself to be swept along by the Triple Crown hype, and run his horse in the Preakness, should he feel that its in his horse's best interest not to run.

Meanwhile, the Florida Derby form was franked by not only Tapit's 5th. behind Friends Lake, but The Cliff's Edge's (who was third in that race)victory in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. This might have been the best of the three trials, and as the winner likes Churchill Downs, where his trainer has won the Derby twice before, they represent a formidable team. Again, though, The Cliff's Edge, could encounter traffic problems in a big field.

So unbeaten in six Smarty Jones, the wire-to-wire winner of the Arkansas Derby (from the unfavorable outside P.P.) may find himself the popular choice come the first Saturday in May, even though his connections lack Derby experience. He has tactical speed, handles an off-track and seems to get better and better the farther he goes, which is surprising for a son of the sprinter, Elusive Quality. But speed, in The Kentucky Derby is always dangerous....especially if unchallenged.

Of those that were beaten, Master David looks solid, but maybe for a minor share. And, if we were to speculate on a spoiler at this stage, we might invest a few dollars on Lion Heart, who made the running until caught by The Cliff's Edge. He's a good-moving, lightly-raced colt, with tactical speed, who may not have peaked yet. Just the type of horse that Mike Smith rides well. And his enigmatic trainer, Patrick Biancone (France's answer to Wayne Lukas and Bob Baffert) has a habit of winning big races...viz All Along, Palace Music etc.

So....while there may not be a Lukas or Baffert centre-stage, this year, Patrick Biancone could turn out to be an able substitute. With B.S. french-style, anyway!

Finally....everyone knows just how bankrupt of good ideas the NTRA is, but the embarassingly blatant 'Greatest Game' infomercial on the NBC coverage was really pathetic. Just who do these people think their audience is? And how many people are running around with a spare $130K burning a hole in their pocket....just dying to be relieved of their cash and given the run-around?

Its bad enough that the Breeders' Cup/NTRA people stole 'The Greatest Game' moniker from this corner. But to sully a good broadcast with such nonsense was indictive of just how completely out of touch with racing fans they are.

Le plus ca change!