4/20/2004

Kentucky Derby an open affair

Up until last weekend even hardcore punters were not quite sure what to make of this year's 3-year-olds and the upcoming Kentucky Derby. And even now, with three or four serious contenders having won the last important trials, cases can be made for just about every one of the twenty or so starters that look likely to make for a full field on May 1st. So the race itself promises to be as entertaining, from a punters perspective, as any in recent memory.

Between now and a week from this Saturday pundits will disect every little piece of info, track bias, pedigree line, pace scenario, likely traffic problems and umpteen other Derby dos and don'ts. And, come May 1st., the oft-dubious role of favorite may not be known until just before post-time.

At this stage, though, our observations are as follows:

SMARTY JONES - Unbeaten in 6, he seeks to become the first unbeaten winner since Seattle Slew in 1977, and first Pennsylvania-bred to win this race. To date he's done nothing wrong....is a horse that has won on an off-track, and one that has tactical speed that should stand him in good stead in a big field. The only negative factors are that his connections and particularly his jockey, Stewart Elliott, have no Kentucky Derby experience. And both his sire and dam's sire were sprinters....so will he get the trip?

THE CLIFF'S EDGE...looked mighty impressive, winning The Blue Grass Stakes.....got a big Beyer figure for doing so....is a Churchill winner....and comes from the ever-dangerous barn of two-time Kentucky winner, Nick Zito. So he's got all the credentials, and appears to be peeking at just the right time. But he comes from off the pace and could be susceptible to traffic problems.

TAPIT...The Wood Memorial winner is probably the best prospect in the field. Trained by a savvy horseman, Michael Dickinson, who won't run him unless he's 100%, and ridden by the most exciting young jockey in North America, Ramon Dominguez. This grey looks like a Derby winner, but he comes from way out of it, and, with Dominguez not yet Derby-experienced, he could easily have traffic problems.

CASTLEDALE...Irish-bred won his dirt debut in The Santa Anita Derby. But he did not beat much, and, being a diminuitive type, the hustle and bustle of a big field could undo him. Not our idea of the winner.

FRIENDS LAKE....the Florida Derby winner trains into the Kentucky equivalent, which is somewhat unorthodox. But his veterinarian/trainer, John Kimmel, must be respected. And Florida Derby form nearly always stands up in Kentucky. So, although he would be an unlikely winner (and the second New York-bred in a row) he's a bit of a dark horse who should not be forgotten in the shuffle.

POLLARD'S VISION...the Illinois Derby winner takes the War Emblem route, but really does not look like a premier contender.

Others that figure:

LION HEART...a good second to The Cliff's Edge in the Blue Grass...he's got speed and, as a relatively fresh horse (probably on Lasix for the first time), he'll be dangerous for as long as he lasts...if the pace isn't too hot in the early stages.

IMPERIALISM..another come-from-behind sort, who could be a live outsider, if he gets a good trip.

QUINTON'S GOLD RUSH...flashy chestnut takes the Charismatic (another flashy chestnut) route, via the Lexington Stakes...but Jerry Bailey dumped him for Bob Baffert's WIMBLEDON, who doesn't figure at all. So go figure.

Of the rest....Borrego, 2nd. to Smarty Jones in the Arkansas Derby may appreciate the distance, but is a real longshot.....Read the Footnotes will have trouble getting the trip.....Wimbledon is not good enough, with or without Bailey.....Action this Day. Not likely.......Limehouse, another who won't get the trip......Minister Eric, ditto, but maybe a longshot to hit the board....Birdstone, in and out performer who seems to have to have everything his own way, which won't be the case here....Sinister G, cheap speed.....Master David, 2nd. to Tapit in the Wood Memorial, he represents ever-dangerous Bobby Frankel and could be a spoiler....so don't discount him completely.

Real Racing's fancies....as of April 20th.

THE CLIFF'S EDGE, TAPIT, SMARTY JONES, with Lion Heart, Master David and Imperialism three that should be included in exotics.