5/3/2004

Derby Fall-Out

As a rule few horses actually excell on an off-track. Indeed, its usually more of a case that some handle it while others don't at all.

So, in the wake of Saturday's sloppy running of the Kentucky Derby, many excuses are bound to be put forth. Going through the field, this is how we saw it:-

Smarty Jones....an unbeaten pro, who seems to be able to handle all competition and conditions. So, barring an injury, he would appear to have a good chance to win the Triple Crown and his second $5 million bonus. The pressure now is going to be on his rider, Stewart Elliott.

Lion Heart (2nd. by 2 3/4)....ran a super race, and will be fancied to reverse placings over the tighter and shorter trip of the Preakness at Pimlico. But he may find new speed horses will make his front-running a bit tougher there.

Imperialism (3rd. by 6)....along with The Cliff's Edge and Action this Day was one of the only horses to make a move, closing from 17th. at the 1/2 mile pole. He looked great on parade and figures to run well again in the Preakness, if he gets a good closers trip.

Limehouse (4th. by 8)....ran an absolute blinder from his favored rail post. But that just might be his best.

The Cliff's Edge (5th. by 12 1/2)...apparently lost his two front shoes in the melee, and then obviously was struggling therafter. Bound to run better on a fast track + 4 good tyres, but Pimlico, with its tight turns might prove too sharp for him, in the Preakness.

Action this Day (6th. by 13 3/4)....ran his best race since the Breeders' Cup Classic, closing from dead last at the 3/4 pole. But he was running by horses that were stopping, as in the BC, and he might just be a little too slow for the Preakness.

Read the Footnotes (7th. by 14 3/4)....was right there for a mile and then flattened out, which wasn't surprising, considering his preparation and pedigree. Could run better in the Preakness, where the conditions should suit him better.

Birdstone (8th. by 15 1/4)....ran an even race. May not be top class.

Tapit (9th. by 15 3/4)...washed out badly before the race and looked unsettled in the post-parade, which effectively eliminated his chances. Throw out this race completely. And don't expect to see him in the Preakness, as his trainer is likely to want to re-group after this debacle.

Borrego (10th. by 16 1/4)....made a move up to 4th. at the mile pole, but could not sustain. A rather lengthy, unfurnished-looking colt, he may need more time.

Song of the Sword (11th. by 17 3/4)...just never got into the race.

Master David (12th. by 18 3/4).....mid-pack early on, then flattened out. Give him another chance on a better track.

Pro Prado (13th. by 20 1/2)....never had a chance from the get-go, and ran like it.

Castledale (14th. by 25 3/5).....never ran a lick. But conditions were against him: so give him another chance on a fast track, back in sunny California.

Friends Lake (15th. by 37 1/4).....a major disappointment never fired at all. So throw out this race, and watch for the future...maybe the Belmont?

Minister Eric (16th. by 37 3/4)....was up there for 3/4 of a mile, but then stopped badly.

Pollard's Vision (17th. by 41 1/4)....ran fast for 1/2 a mile, but then beat a hasty retreat.

Quinton's Gold Rush (18th. eased)....never really had a chance from the 18-hole. And his rider wisely eased him, when he was beaten. Give him another chance, but he needs more time to mature and doesn't strike us as a Preakness horse.

All in all the first four ran well, but everyone else disappointed. So the debate will now be on as to which horses had the best excuses, as the circus heads for Pimlico, where a raft of fresh challengers may join the fray. Whatever they are and whoever they may be, though, Smarty Jones will take all the beating in the Preakness. And, as has happened several times before, the order of finish could quite easily be the same in round 2 as round 1.

Stay tuned...